Showing posts with label Lesson. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Lesson. Show all posts

Tuesday, November 6, 2007

Grave Mistakes...

=== Lock another 150 losses ====
DJI vomitted 356.29 points last friday. And recover about 20 points on sat.
From what I observe, dips like this dun just come in one wave, and news of bad results from citigroup will definately cause another tumble when it opens trading on monday.

With such anticipation, I have join the putties bandwagon in hope to have a fruitful ride. In a rush-headed mind for profits, I have overlook the ISM report and its impact on DJI.

Early warnings were send out yesterday when STI tested 50 days MA and did not decline further after HSI closes with a deep drop of more then 1500 points, instead it retrace back to 3670 support lvl. At that point, I still foolishly held on to hope and took the gamble.

===This morning===
DJI closes 51 points down. To me, it seems ok where I should be able to enjoy the ride down. To my dismay, it went the other way round!!!

Trader Instincts
"When the trades goes wrong, you have to rush for the emergancy exit!!!"

My margin of risk was compromised and thus I took my losses before HSI opens as HSI is usually a driver to STI in either direction(decided not to take the gamble).

Mistakes:
Herd-Following
Panic buying/selling(brought at day high/sold at day low)
Traded on emotions/greed

Thursday, October 25, 2007

Aztech...

====Aztech, A Prospective Counter that Sunk...====
The images below are excerpts from SIAS research in july. The report(figures and future prospects) is pretty impressive and has attracted me to buy.

Other driving factors: Provider for Singtel Mio and Skape phone.

Summary:

  • 1st half 2007 Net Profit up 25.2% compare to 1st half 2006. Deducting the one-time exceptional gain in 2006. It up by 45.4%!!! Impressive results!

  • Financial Position is stronger than 2006(see images for figures) indicates a good and stable growth.

  • P/E ratio stand at 13.8, which is the second lowest among its peers. Industrial Average P/E is 18.1. Lowest P/E stands at 11.5, Highest P/E stands at 25.2.

  • SIAS give a TP of 0.87!!! I brought at 0.575, if hit target will give me a yield of more than 50%!!!

====Q3 Results====
The 3Q results is totally not fanastic.

  • Revenue rose 13.6% to S$185.13 million when compared to 2006

  • Net profit increased only 3.1% to S$12.62 from 2006

  • Quarter-on-quarter basis, the Group witnessed a 8.9% increase in turnover to S$67.50 million

  • Quarter-on-quarter basis net profit declined 28.6% to S$3.59 million....

Credit Agricolor has sold off their holdings and brought a significant drops to its stock prices... The only comforting news is that the company and its' directors kept buying back shares which indicates that they are confidence in the future growth.

====Actions====
An Big Mistake Trusting Brokerage Research(A repeatation of LongCheer...)Keep this counter in my locker and take whatever dividends they give...

Monday, August 6, 2007

ShowHand on Royal Flush?!?!?!

Singapore Economy has perform well during the Second Quater. With such a strong performace, serveral investors/speculator are confident in investing into our home growth companies and some other prospective overseas companies thus most of them including me go in and grab.

I have already showhand all of my capital into the market since the cards opened are the spades' royal family and the last unopened card is the Spade of Ace since the Singapore is so bullish!

Then came along two uninvited guest, Mr Bear Sterns Fund and his Ugly Friend Subprime Mortages before I get to open my last card... They seated beside me and do some wonderful tricks on my last card. Being nervous on the arrival of the unexpected guest , I look onto my card again and to my shock, my ACE is gone and now I holding onto a JOKER...

What I do now is pay protection money to Mr Bear Sterns and Subprime Mortages to delay the time so that I can rub the joker into my orginal spade of ACE....


Lesson: Never to be too confident on the bullish market. Things may not turn out to what we predict as there are external parties that may affect the market. Keep at least 30%- 50% of cash reserve instead of vesting all of them!