Sunday, October 14, 2007

Another Trading Mistake

====Lian Beng Blasting Higher & Higher====

Just when I thought I got a good price by selling at day high on Thursday, Lian Beng has make yet another miracle on Friday!!! Argh!!!

Fridays are usually sell down day as people (mostly speculators) do not want to hold through the weekend. I am surprised that the highly speculated Lian Beng can yet hit another record high today when we have 558 losers out of the 825 counters in SGX.

This may indicates that
1) TA and FA is not 100% and highly price stocks will become more expensive as long as there is high demand on it.

2) It is hard to time the market

3) I have not learnt well to predict the trend.
Lian Beng New Chart Below:


Looking at the chart above, I realize that I have made a mistake in my analysis. I failed to see that the trendline is still intact....I must admit that to a certain expects, Fear has gotten me into selling Lian Beng due to the fact that many experts have analyze about the minor pullback in mid October. This only shows that my psychology to deal with the market is weak...

Thursday, October 11, 2007

Sale of Lian Beng

==== Small Talk in the Market =====
2 and a half mths has passed since the last correction in late jul/early aug where we see a sharp decline in STI from an all time high of 3700++ to 2900++ breaking the 200MA support.

Back to present, we managed to see STI breaks into new record of 3900+ into the uncharted region yesterday. Several analyst feels that he recovery is way too fast and predicts there may be a pull back in mid Oct.

During the week, STI has gapped up on two occasion only to closed lower due to the profit taking sentiment in the market. Just yesterday, STI hit its high of 3906 and close at 3814 (almost a hundred points down). It may be a sign of warning.

====Personal Experience====
As a beginner, I am alway heavily vested in the market. This has made me got caught in the two market corrections where my holdings got struck. From the experience, I learnt to be smart and decided to lock some profits to safeguard myself against the forseeable correction ahead.

Looking at my holdings, I have only 2 counters(Lian Beng & STI ETF 100) that are on profits. This scale down to only one choice - Lian Beng - as its the only one that I could liqudate into cash. I have already do my research on Lian Beng and its peers before selling it. (see below)

===Personal Analysis===

Overview of P/E (Sources: Straits Times, 10th Oct, Wednesday)
CSC Holdings: 43.1
Chip Eng Seng: 34.2
LC Dev: 55.9
Lian Beng: 77.3
Yongnam:63.9

Comparing among its peers, Lian Beng has the highest P/E. It is very risky for investors enter into it now.

Constructions Charts






All the charts above shows a possible downtrend. It may be a good time to lock profits and entered on dips during the correction.

Friday, October 5, 2007

New Securities Account!

===Small talk with securities trading account===
We have seen/hear news of technical failure in securities trading platform from time to time when there are exceptionally large volume of trading on the trading day itself – these days are usually crucial to investors/traders as majority of them happens on when there are price shock/correction in the market. The technical failure results investors/traders to lose significant amount of profits, eating into their profits and the extreme worse cases go to margin traders where they could not cut their losses. Thus, it will be best to have a reliable securities company trading platform and perhaps diversify your trades with different trading platforms.

Personal experiences
I have been trading with POEMS since Feb. From my experience, I feel that it is simple and easy to use especially for beginners like me. It offers investors/traders a wide variety of financial instruments from the most common stocks, bonds, treasury bills, unit trust to the sophisticated instrument, forex. However, I have encountered some cases from primarily where live prices system crashes and cannot be shown or companies name cannot be display on live prices to the worse where I cannot log into the system for a few hours during the trading day.

This is especially annoying as I cannot manage to protect my profits and cut my losses and watch my counters prices drop sharply from the SGX website where I can’t do anything (Still got another alternative: call your broker place your order which incur a higher transaction fees). I had complained about this to Mentor Neo and he suggested to get another trading account as POEMS trading platform is usually unable to handle large trading volume on crucial day.

Recommendations
He has recommend Lim & Tan Securities and iOCBC Securities to me and emphasis on Lim & Tan securities as they are having a promotion now. The promotions give a 50 NTUC vouchers and 6 months free subscription to ShareInvestor Account after completing 3 trades with them. WHAO! That’s a good deal as you can get access to a range of analyzing tools and comprehensive information of stocks information from ShareInvestor website. As for iOCBC, it offers free SMS alert features for free whereas the rest need to redeem points for the feature.

Action
With such attractive benefits and features, I have applied for both last week and managed to get my Lim & Tan Securities trading account today and iOCBC has rang me up to inform me that my account will be ready by next week. :)

"Too Fast Too Furious" Week

===Small talk in the Market ===
China stocks legacy ended briefly on Tuesday where most counters fall sharply on Wednesday after a big gap up. The rally is set due to China week long holidays as they celebrate their National Day. Major indices kept breaking new highs for 2-3 consecutive sessions?!?!?! This is very alarming as Dow Jones was one of the indices which broke record high even with its credit risk deficit….. Hmm where is the connection???

Amidst in the rally, we saw some spectacular performance in the constructions sector who follow the properties giant rally last week since the review of booming property article from Business Times on 27/4/2007. The most amazing play would be ei-nets… which make almost a 500% yield comparing it prices on 20/09/2007 to the prices today.

Personal thoughts/views

On the whole, the market is enthusiastic for the rise of the sleeping dragon for the 1st half of the week until the fever was stop. Haiz, we are not HSI ultimately…. this is extremely bad for me as I hope to release longcheer among the rally…. Have to keep in my pocket now... will look forward to release it in the year end rally. I only hope that Dow Jones (major concerns for the world economy) does not interfere with the year end rally….

Along the way, I have pick up Ouhua which I mentioned in my previous postings. I was really happy to see it rises 10 cents from my buy price but good things always have short time framed and it decline sharply to 0.525 -0.535… Short term support now at 0.535… May have to release soon for other attractive counters before it hit my buy price and goes beyond it…

As for ei-nets, personally I have received tips (from someone who is right so far with his previous 3 tips) to buy in August but I did not purchase it as I have doubts over it. Furthermore, the company has reported losses lately and makes me unconvinced with the tips… Well with the rise, it has proved that his tips are reliable… Though I have missed the opportunity yet again, I was not upset as before because it will make me uncomfortable to invest in it.

Next constructions, well I have realized a little late that the booming news for our properties giant will brings in the construction play. Though I did not make any new purchase in that sector, I still enjoy the ride from -Lian Beng- as it secured another contract from Kovan development site bringing up its book order to 575 million. This also makes me experience something new as it has broken new highs where I am not able to predict its resistance level from the chart…. Now I do not know when to sell.

Once again from the chart we see that prices reflect before news and know that it’s a dirty game after all with the 3 consecutive volume spikes from the charts!



Note: Previously, I had set my sell target at 0.58 before July correction, have now change my perspective on it and decide to ride on the trend.

Finally, I have dropped my target to even out my net losses before year end. I feel that this has given myself too much pressure and affect my psychology in trading. From this, I learn that a little pressure is good but too much make one person go haywire.

Monday, October 1, 2007

==== 1st OCT 2007 ==== IRONIC DAY

A dreadfully sad day for me where i ponder over my earlier decision... Now, I am feeling some regret lingering from my soul....

We have a good bullrun in the exhange today with china stocks conquering the top gainers and my capital are rolling back to me. Yet with these, I am not feeling the joy that I should have felt......

something is gone and missing forever...