Wednesday, June 18, 2008

Mistakes from my recent trades


Lately I have made 2 purchases with some mistakes on them.

I will blog them down and try not to commit the mistakes again.

Trade No 1: Allgreen ( auspicious name for all my counter to be green green turned haywire)





Reasons I brought
Based on valuation, allgreen at that time NAV is slightly above 1.50 with a dividend yield slightly above 4 percent. Seeing such such an attractive valuations, I have enter positions using technical analysis near the horizontal support of 1.09 expecting some tech rebound off the support line. RSI indicates that it is overly sold and stochastic has signals for price to go up but MCAD doesn't has any obvious signal.



Good news popping out in sluggish sector!!!
Demand in the property sector showed signs of weakness in the 1st quarter. This sector has been sluggish since July 2007 due to government introduces development charges on project and soaring materials.

However, lately, our Government had planned to relocate some of its agencies and statuory board out of the CBD vicinity to increase office space and NDB is going to release the news of masterplan in the night where all the developers were excited over it. Seeing the severe drop of stock prices since july high, I believe it is trading at a discount now and was optimisstic over the new masterplan results which would benefit the developers and drive the sector up.



But things didn't turn out well... the masterplan deliver no surprises to the developer and does not have any positive impact. The stocks prices then plunged to 0.99 breaching $1 support before rebounding above 1 and stayed there. I have decided to hold the counter till the next property boom which I hope to be within the next four years.



Mistakes and Reflections.
Although the valuations and technical charts are attractive, I should not have ignore the overall general market sentiment and the property sector which happens to considered the second weakest sector other than finance.... Now have to bite onto my fingers and pray it would fall back to 2003 -2004 prices.



Trade No 2: KS Energy ( The counter that never fails on me)





Well not really a big mistake on this just that i had entered slightly earlier even though I anticipated RSI will hit 30%. However seeing the price is at the lower band of bollinger band and near horizontal support and the mid term support line brings on temptation to make the purchase.

Things to note here will be wheather the 50 days Moving Average will hold. best entry would be after testing the moving averge.

Macd going to cross soon, looking to add more positions tml.

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