The Feeling Inside Me...

====In the Market Today====
As mention in my previous posting on the importance of Sector In Play! Today we get to see how powerful it is with all the constructions, commodities and marine sector surging up significantly.

Argh... I am 100 vested cannot do anything even when I saw a buy signal in Ferderal yesterday. It have move in the direction I anticipated... Still got more room to moved up... and thoughts of contra filled my mind now...

haiz... Main issue now is that there will be having a fed meeting tomorrow and it is a gamble that the fed reserve will cut rates... and the other towering issue is the unrealistic balloon floating over the Hong Kong Island...

Risk: Extreme High esp when I do not have any credits to pay off.. better keep my fingers off the button...

Problems Young Investors faced:
- Limited Capital
- Fear & lack of confidence...

News Flash

====Property Curbs====
In an attempt to cool things down, our government have step in to intervene hot property market, making the current deferment scheme more rigid for home buyers. The reason behind it is to make the homes more affordable the locals??? Hmm, I wonder how...

Nevertheless, this has brought a deep impact on our property players in Singapore where we saw most of them topping the top 30 losers today. I think this sector will sleep through the winter till next year.

With the government's target to achieve a 6.5 million, it will definately be back in play next year.

====Labory Being Taken Over====
News of this lucrative Marine and Oil Company being taken over by Dubai Drydocks has sparken up the prices in Labory. Hmm but analyst see the offering price too low????

Hmm, so far counters that speculations beign take over all cheong(Ezion by Ezra, Chartered Semiconductors by Temasek Holdings)

====CNA DMG Analyst Report====
Aztech got hugh contracts for its ADSL modem in Northern America and expects to clinch onto a futher 2 billion worth of contracts. As of now, factory are 100% operated.

12 Month Target Price: 0.51 (Oh My God!!!!)

Papa Bear Knock out!

====Market Talk====
STI has gap up and close at 3771.55, just nicely above 3750 short term resistance. This largely due to the positive closing of DJI in their last two trading session. Tonight Technology Giant Microsoft will be reporting its earnings, its' new product Microsoft Vista Earnings will definitely boost up DJI. Thus, I believe that Papa Bear has been knock out already and the bull regime will assumes with the earnings season ahead.

Review on the week actions: Marine stocks, Commodities, Contructions take turns to soar...

===My Regrets===
Loading up ChinaEnergy during the bearish tone is my biggest regret... All along, I have known and been told that Commodities, Constructions, Marine & Oil were the sectors in play and what I have brought doesn't belong to any of the sector mentions... That's very Dumb of me As I did not applied what I learnt from Master Dec/Mentor Neo which focusing on the sector in play and buy relevent stocks.( Need to slapped myself for that)

What all I can do it to wait for ChinaEnergy to be appreciated....

===Hopes and Wishes===
- First ,to offload Longcheer when opportunities comes!
- Hope that my counters can get into the green zone soon.

===Plans Ahead===
Thereafter I will revamp my portfolio carefully as spreading my little capital over so many counters(over-diversified) does not bring in profits effectively.... Will reduce my counters...

"You do not need many counters to bring in small profits, you just need one or two to bring in big profits"

Will definately also focus on Risk Management too as my capital is small.

Investing in myself by reading up more books in the after exams!

====Extras! Extras! Interesting Counters===
ASL Marine, LaboryMarine, Jaya Holdings all trading near resistance, high possibilites to break out!
Olam Rebounding Up from Moving Averages.
Noble Group assuming uptrend.
Midas possible break out from Moving Averages.
Golden Agriculture Testing Resistance. PineAgriculture at support level.

Aztech...

====Aztech, A Prospective Counter that Sunk...====
The images below are excerpts from SIAS research in july. The report(figures and future prospects) is pretty impressive and has attracted me to buy.

Other driving factors: Provider for Singtel Mio and Skape phone.

Summary:

• 1st half 2007 Net Profit up 25.2% compare to 1st half 2006. Deducting the one-time exceptional gain in 2006. It up by 45.4%!!! Impressive results!


• Financial Position is stronger than 2006(see images for figures) indicates a good and stable growth.


• P/E ratio stand at 13.8, which is the second lowest among its peers. Industrial Average P/E is 18.1. Lowest P/E stands at 11.5, Highest P/E stands at 25.2.


• SIAS give a TP of 0.87!!! I brought at 0.575, if hit target will give me a yield of more than 50%!!!

====Q3 Results====
The 3Q results is totally not fanastic.

• Revenue rose 13.6% to S$185.13 million when compared to 2006


• Net profit increased only 3.1% to S$12.62 from 2006


• Quarter-on-quarter basis, the Group witnessed a 8.9% increase in turnover to S$67.50 million


• Quarter-on-quarter basis net profit declined 28.6% to S$3.59 million....

Credit Agricolor has sold off their holdings and brought a significant drops to its stock prices... The only comforting news is that the company and its' directors kept buying back shares which indicates that they are confidence in the future growth.

====Actions====
An Big Mistake Trusting Brokerage Research(A repeatation of LongCheer...)Keep this counter in my locker and take whatever dividends they give...

Time of Volatility

====Swinging Market====

Last Friday, DJI went down by 366.25 points to close at 13522.02. Whao the black monday effect is so great. The festive mood has also spread to STI on Monday 22/10/2007, where we have a gap down and another further decline to 3632.98 for the 1st hour before HSI comes to our support which helps us end the the day with only 35 points down.

Then came tuesday, DJI manage to close slightly higher last night and we get to enjoy some ride up the index with the support from HSI.

Last night, DJI manage to shoot up due to the strong earnings from Apple. This has boosted our index and STI manage to gap up today. However, HSI start to lose its strength and STI got its beatings as well, managing to close at 1645 near the 1650 support this support will not hold now...

More reports(beatings) to come in US:
MBA Purchase Applications (wk10/19 , 2007) Oct 24
Existing Home Sales (Sep , 2007) Oct 24
DJI - 168 as at 11.20pm

=====Actions====
As the saying goes"Volatilty is your friend" and I am out to buy on weakness during such times.

And I got to pick up China Energy yesterday. With the purchase, I am 100% vested again!
Chart below:




Today, it manage to gap up but has closed lower.... I can only hopes that weak holders are out of from the previous selling... and it can hold at ard 1.32....

Haiz a jinx again... failed to anticipated further decline due to US report.

Tomorrow Aztech report earnings.... due to market sentiments, positive results will not have any impact on the counter....

Portfolio status: Down 15%...

SnapShot of See Hup Seng

See Hup Seng Ltd provides corrosion prevention services for the marine petrochemical & chemical and construction industries.

With the booming marine and construction industries, I believe SeeHS will be able to flourish with the services it provides. May need to hold long to yield big profit.

Mission Failed!

====Market Sentiment====
Today market sentiments is a total inverse of yesterday. We saw STI diving down from previous closing 3,810.72 to 3,735.39 just before 10a.m. Then, it seems to have found some treasure at that level and slowly rises back to the surface of the water to close at 3,839.73 making a +29.01 gain. This is particularly caused by ever strong HSI which guided it up to the ship and get its' way back to the north-bound course.

====Actions====
(1) Shorting IPO
Today's debutee, ChinaOilTech open at $1.20, a significant increase gain of 100% from its IPO price at 0.60. Like most IPO, excitment has catalyst it up to $1.35 at the beginning of the morning.

To me, it is overly price and thus I begin to execute my plan to short it! 3 try of market sell at prices above $1.20 were missed.... And eventually at 9.45a.m, I shorted it at $1.09... with the belief it will go down beyond the day low of $1.

Prices have flucuate between 1.03 to 1.13 till 4.20p.m. , thereafter, it goes up to 1.15 and eventually close at 1.13. I have stick to my belief that it will goes down below $1 around 3.30 P.M., the time that market tend to have lots of selling. However, it did not even hit $1... I had become weary and set my buy queue at 1.06... which it only manage to touch but my buy order did not get through... Finally, at 4.25 p.m., I have to accept my mistake to realise yet Another LOSS of around $86 by covering my positions at 1.10...

Again, I have to thank Mentor Neo warning me that BB be back to push the price after a strong HSI closing at 4.30P.M. If not my losses will me much more.

(2) Buying On Dips

As mention in my previous posts, small corrections are the best time to buy on dips. Personally, I do have a few counters to purchase in mind to ride the year end rally and settle for Courage Marine queuing at 0.485 at 12.00P.M. (Notice that I have set my buy queue at a late time, this is because I am overly engrossed on my shorts position and forgotten my plan).

The counter manage to hit 0.475(ML entry price: super strong support) in the morning and I have missed it(reason above). By the time I remember my plan, it was at 0.50... I then set it at 0.485 in hope to get it in the noon sell-down.

During the noon, the lowest it got was 0.49, needless to say, I did not get it.

Conclusion: Both plans had failed!!!

===Lessons===

In my desperate state to recover losses, I have make a risky attempt by shorting. I was highlight that I did not calculate my risk well.

(1) At 60cents, ChinaOil Tech P/E was 20(consider high). However, its peers is trading at a P/E ratio of 40. Therefore 1.20 is reasonable...

(2) I know that PowerHouse is shifting from the States to China and HongKong. And I have neglect a little on HSI market sentiment and went against the trend, I should have release on weakness when I am ITM. Being stubbon and holding on to my beliefs is a mistake.

(3) As shorting is taxing, I forget about my intial plan to buy on dips.

(4) One must not be greedy to lock profits when shorting.

===Feelings/Thoughts===

Till now, I feel like a jinx(being negative) and always wondered how I am able to earn like my peers to earn from the market. My long recovery journey seems to be NEVERENDING and I felt very frustrated/depressed about it.

When will this be over??

Personal Comment:

INVESTING IS ONLY FUN WHEN YOU ARE EARNING, NOT WHEN YOU ARE IN MY DREADFUL STATE OF LOSSES

The Awaited Correction

==== Small Talk in the Market====
Yesterday(posted after 12am), we have experienced great volatility in the market where we seen a Morning Glory where STI open at 3,826.81 running up to 3,856.36 which later become a Looming Afternoon when it got tired and slips to a low of 3,788.88 before closing at 3,810.72.

===What Happen and Thoughts===
This has caused a great commotion in the midst of the bullish market and we saw a hugh selldown across the market.

The possible cause may be
1) The awakening of the credit woes in US.
2) The Uncertainties of the Fed Meeting in the weeks ahead on 31st Oct.
3) The fall may be a memoir of Black Monday on October 19, 1987.

Well, this is inevitably good for me as I am waiting for the bear to strike from my sale of Lian Beng. With this pullback, I hope to get some cheap bargains to ride the year end rally in Nov.

I am very interested to see how counters like Courage Marine, Sky Petrol(Fund House just entered), Ezra(just posted good results) and of cos China OilField Technology(IPO start trading) will react with the negative sentiment, especially when the experts in ShareInvestors are triggering the sell call.

Of course, the more adventurous can try to short some counters tomorrow for quick gains.

Quickies for shorting
Raffles Education
UniAsia( left peanut)

SnapShot of Hiap Seng

Quick Analysis of a undervalued stock.

P.S. For Bro Max(insider brought at 0.795)

Wishy-washy

I have been wishy washy in trading(lack of confidence)... getting more and more conservative with my buyings(fear)... and not following the primitive system of mine. I always have this mentality that I can get the stocks at a cheaper price(those who knew me knows that i usually set 3 bids away from open price and I seldom get them) thus always failed to buy those stocks and they flew away without me.This has made me lose lots of profit.

Today, another counter long in my watchlist flew away again. That is Courage Marine... I have been bioing that counter below 40 cents since the correction in July/Aug and today Big Fund House, Merril Lynch has entered into it, making the price shot up to 0.525....

Well, too late to enter again..... Haiz....

Investing is Fun?!?!?!??

Today, Mentor Neo have said to me that "Investing Is Fun". I totally rejected the idea as my journey to now, is not enjoyable... and I am still in a dreadful state, still trying to recover my losses...

Investing is only fun when you are earning. However at my state, I do hate the game alot... Throughout my journey, I have no doubt made mistakes and suffer the losses in vain. I do know my mistakes and is trying to learn from them, preventing myself to make the same mistakes.

However as I continue, I begin to doubt myself...

I have constantly analyse charts and try to update myself with the latest news. I have did alot of analysis for prospective counters before my entry. However, the counters always failed me when after I brought. Then the irony about it is, when I analyse and never buy, it went up.... These has make me pondered alot before making making any trades.

Another Trading Mistake

====Lian Beng Blasting Higher & Higher====

Just when I thought I got a good price by selling at day high on Thursday, Lian Beng has make yet another miracle on Friday!!! Argh!!!

Fridays are usually sell down day as people (mostly speculators) do not want to hold through the weekend. I am surprised that the highly speculated Lian Beng can yet hit another record high today when we have 558 losers out of the 825 counters in SGX.

This may indicates that
1) TA and FA is not 100% and highly price stocks will become more expensive as long as there is high demand on it.

2) It is hard to time the market

3) I have not learnt well to predict the trend.

Lian Beng New Chart Below:

Looking at the chart above, I realize that I have made a mistake in my analysis. I failed to see that the trendline is still intact....I must admit that to a certain expects, Fear has gotten me into selling Lian Beng due to the fact that many experts have analyze about the minor pullback in mid October. This only shows that my psychology to deal with the market is weak...

Sale of Lian Beng

==== Small Talk in the Market =====
2 and a half mths has passed since the last correction in late jul/early aug where we see a sharp decline in STI from an all time high of 3700++ to 2900++ breaking the 200MA support.

Back to present, we managed to see STI breaks into new record of 3900+ into the uncharted region yesterday. Several analyst feels that he recovery is way too fast and predicts there may be a pull back in mid Oct.

During the week, STI has gapped up on two occasion only to closed lower due to the profit taking sentiment in the market. Just yesterday, STI hit its high of 3906 and close at 3814 (almost a hundred points down). It may be a sign of warning.

====Personal Experience====
As a beginner, I am alway heavily vested in the market. This has made me got caught in the two market corrections where my holdings got struck. From the experience, I learnt to be smart and decided to lock some profits to safeguard myself against the forseeable correction ahead.

Looking at my holdings, I have only 2 counters(Lian Beng & STI ETF 100) that are on profits. This scale down to only one choice - Lian Beng - as its the only one that I could liqudate into cash. I have already do my research on Lian Beng and its peers before selling it. (see below)

===Personal Analysis===

Overview of P/E (Sources: Straits Times, 10th Oct, Wednesday)
CSC Holdings: 43.1
Chip Eng Seng: 34.2
LC Dev: 55.9
Lian Beng: 77.3
Yongnam:63.9

Comparing among its peers, Lian Beng has the highest P/E. It is very risky for investors enter into it now.

Constructions Charts






All the charts above shows a possible downtrend. It may be a good time to lock profits and entered on dips during the correction.

New Securities Account!

===Small talk with securities trading account===
We have seen/hear news of technical failure in securities trading platform from time to time when there are exceptionally large volume of trading on the trading day itself – these days are usually crucial to investors/traders as majority of them happens on when there are price shock/correction in the market. The technical failure results investors/traders to lose significant amount of profits, eating into their profits and the extreme worse cases go to margin traders where they could not cut their losses. Thus, it will be best to have a reliable securities company trading platform and perhaps diversify your trades with different trading platforms.

Personal experiences
I have been trading with POEMS since Feb. From my experience, I feel that it is simple and easy to use especially for beginners like me. It offers investors/traders a wide variety of financial instruments from the most common stocks, bonds, treasury bills, unit trust to the sophisticated instrument, forex. However, I have encountered some cases from primarily where live prices system crashes and cannot be shown or companies name cannot be display on live prices to the worse where I cannot log into the system for a few hours during the trading day.

This is especially annoying as I cannot manage to protect my profits and cut my losses and watch my counters prices drop sharply from the SGX website where I can’t do anything (Still got another alternative: call your broker place your order which incur a higher transaction fees). I had complained about this to Mentor Neo and he suggested to get another trading account as POEMS trading platform is usually unable to handle large trading volume on crucial day.

Recommendations
He has recommend Lim & Tan Securities and iOCBC Securities to me and emphasis on Lim & Tan securities as they are having a promotion now. The promotions give a 50 NTUC vouchers and 6 months free subscription to ShareInvestor Account after completing 3 trades with them. WHAO! That’s a good deal as you can get access to a range of analyzing tools and comprehensive information of stocks information from ShareInvestor website. As for iOCBC, it offers free SMS alert features for free whereas the rest need to redeem points for the feature.

Action
With such attractive benefits and features, I have applied for both last week and managed to get my Lim & Tan Securities trading account today and iOCBC has rang me up to inform me that my account will be ready by next week. :)

"Too Fast Too Furious" Week

===Small talk in the Market ===
China stocks legacy ended briefly on Tuesday where most counters fall sharply on Wednesday after a big gap up. The rally is set due to China week long holidays as they celebrate their National Day. Major indices kept breaking new highs for 2-3 consecutive sessions?!?!?! This is very alarming as Dow Jones was one of the indices which broke record high even with its credit risk deficit….. Hmm where is the connection???

Amidst in the rally, we saw some spectacular performance in the constructions sector who follow the properties giant rally last week since the review of booming property article from Business Times on 27/4/2007. The most amazing play would be ei-nets… which make almost a 500% yield comparing it prices on 20/09/2007 to the prices today.

Personal thoughts/views

On the whole, the market is enthusiastic for the rise of the sleeping dragon for the 1st half of the week until the fever was stop. Haiz, we are not HSI ultimately…. this is extremely bad for me as I hope to release longcheer among the rally…. Have to keep in my pocket now... will look forward to release it in the year end rally. I only hope that Dow Jones (major concerns for the world economy) does not interfere with the year end rally….

Along the way, I have pick up Ouhua which I mentioned in my previous postings. I was really happy to see it rises 10 cents from my buy price but good things always have short time framed and it decline sharply to 0.525 -0.535… Short term support now at 0.535… May have to release soon for other attractive counters before it hit my buy price and goes beyond it…

As for ei-nets, personally I have received tips (from someone who is right so far with his previous 3 tips) to buy in August but I did not purchase it as I have doubts over it. Furthermore, the company has reported losses lately and makes me unconvinced with the tips… Well with the rise, it has proved that his tips are reliable… Though I have missed the opportunity yet again, I was not upset as before because it will make me uncomfortable to invest in it.

Next constructions, well I have realized a little late that the booming news for our properties giant will brings in the construction play. Though I did not make any new purchase in that sector, I still enjoy the ride from -Lian Beng- as it secured another contract from Kovan development site bringing up its book order to 575 million. This also makes me experience something new as it has broken new highs where I am not able to predict its resistance level from the chart…. Now I do not know when to sell.

Once again from the chart we see that prices reflect before news and know that it’s a dirty game after all with the 3 consecutive volume spikes from the charts!



Note: Previously, I had set my sell target at 0.58 before July correction, have now change my perspective on it and decide to ride on the trend.

Finally, I have dropped my target to even out my net losses before year end. I feel that this has given myself too much pressure and affect my psychology in trading. From this, I learn that a little pressure is good but too much make one person go haywire.

==== 1st OCT 2007 ==== IRONIC DAY

A dreadfully sad day for me where i ponder over my earlier decision... Now, I am feeling some regret lingering from my soul....

We have a good bullrun in the exhange today with china stocks conquering the top gainers and my capital are rolling back to me. Yet with these, I am not feeling the joy that I should have felt......

something is gone and missing forever...