Wednesday, October 17, 2007

Mission Failed!

====Market Sentiment====
Today market sentiments is a total inverse of yesterday. We saw STI diving down from previous closing 3,810.72 to 3,735.39 just before 10a.m. Then, it seems to have found some treasure at that level and slowly rises back to the surface of the water to close at 3,839.73 making a +29.01 gain. This is particularly caused by ever strong HSI which guided it up to the ship and get its' way back to the north-bound course.

====Actions====
(1) Shorting IPO
Today's debutee, ChinaOilTech open at $1.20, a significant increase gain of 100% from its IPO price at 0.60. Like most IPO, excitment has catalyst it up to $1.35 at the beginning of the morning.

To me, it is overly price and thus I begin to execute my plan to short it! 3 try of market sell at prices above $1.20 were missed.... And eventually at 9.45a.m, I shorted it at $1.09... with the belief it will go down beyond the day low of $1.

Prices have flucuate between 1.03 to 1.13 till 4.20p.m. , thereafter, it goes up to 1.15 and eventually close at 1.13. I have stick to my belief that it will goes down below $1 around 3.30 P.M., the time that market tend to have lots of selling. However, it did not even hit $1... I had become weary and set my buy queue at 1.06... which it only manage to touch but my buy order did not get through... Finally, at 4.25 p.m., I have to accept my mistake to realise yet Another LOSS of around $86 by covering my positions at 1.10...

Again, I have to thank Mentor Neo warning me that BB be back to push the price after a strong HSI closing at 4.30P.M. If not my losses will me much more.

(2) Buying On Dips

As mention in my previous posts, small corrections are the best time to buy on dips. Personally, I do have a few counters to purchase in mind to ride the year end rally and settle for Courage Marine queuing at 0.485 at 12.00P.M. (Notice that I have set my buy queue at a late time, this is because I am overly engrossed on my shorts position and forgotten my plan).

The counter manage to hit 0.475(ML entry price: super strong support) in the morning and I have missed it(reason above). By the time I remember my plan, it was at 0.50... I then set it at 0.485 in hope to get it in the noon sell-down.

During the noon, the lowest it got was 0.49, needless to say, I did not get it.

Conclusion: Both plans had failed!!!

===Lessons===

In my desperate state to recover losses, I have make a risky attempt by shorting. I was highlight that I did not calculate my risk well.

(1) At 60cents, ChinaOil Tech P/E was 20(consider high). However, its peers is trading at a P/E ratio of 40. Therefore 1.20 is reasonable...

(2) I know that PowerHouse is shifting from the States to China and HongKong. And I have neglect a little on HSI market sentiment and went against the trend, I should have release on weakness when I am ITM. Being stubbon and holding on to my beliefs is a mistake.

(3) As shorting is taxing, I forget about my intial plan to buy on dips.

(4) One must not be greedy to lock profits when shorting.

===Feelings/Thoughts===

Till now, I feel like a jinx(being negative) and always wondered how I am able to earn like my peers to earn from the market. My long recovery journey seems to be NEVERENDING and I felt very frustrated/depressed about it.

When will this be over??

Personal Comment:

INVESTING IS ONLY FUN WHEN YOU ARE EARNING, NOT WHEN YOU ARE IN MY DREADFUL STATE OF LOSSES

1 comments:

la papillion said...

hey, don't short the market lah. Shorting the market requires even more precise timing and skill in TA. I believe one should learn stocks in the following order:

1. Big caps
2. Small caps
3. Warrants
4. Shorting
5. CFD

If you jump the sequence, you might end up paying a hefty tuition fee. Esp don't short IPO lah, pure gamble in my opinion. Without TA, it's just shorting blindly and be at the mercy of others. Take heed :)