Enriching Session With Robert Tay

I had an enriching session today after I attending a session-$10 organise by ShareInvestor together with my Mentor.



*****1st part - Introduction to CMC Markets ***

This session gave an insight of the CFD firm as above. Basically I know how does CFD works. It is a very useful tools to go short in the market as it is not subjected to expiry like warrants and gave traders more flexibilities(allows them to hold their short positions longer) through their share borrowings service.



New things I learnt are:

1) You may receive interest from shorting.

2) If you are a contra traders, the transactions fees are about 50% lower than the tradition broker and not subjected to GST charges.

3) If you go long, you are subjected to finance charges.



*****2ND Part - Sharing from Robert Tay UOB KayHian Representative****

After a quick dinner, we go on to Part 2, a sharing session from Robert Tay where he gave a recap on his previous sharing session in June and the, a glimpse of the economic/market outlook for the next six months, some general FA and TA.

Recap on sharing session in June and how the market move last six months

- Highlighted that after STI hit 3500 will have difficulties moving further up and july we saw a big price shock.

- the upward trend thereafter is supported by weak volume indicating there is lower participation and the trend is weak.

********Economic/Market Outlook***********

- Japan are already in a recession. Subprime mortgages repercussion are still not over, banks still have alot that they nv declare.

- The decoupling of Asian markets from the US from the news is not particularly true as US is the world biggest consumer and China Main export's client. With the weakening dollar, US will not be able to consume as much as before. This will snowballed and affect the economic growth of India and China.

-Inflation the next big problem. Inflation has risen pretty fast and to contained it, country should rise interest rate. The US is however doing the opposite way... thus it will drive inflation higher.

With the above pointers, the economic upfront is not in a present shape.

*********Basic TA relearn**********

Vol must support price action/trend.

**********Basic FA*********

Companies with high Leverage Ratio, High Price to book, and High price to NAV will be badly hit in a recession.

We went through some examples of chart to see the volume/price relationship and the of the top 30 stocks that have High Leverage ratio, High Price to Book ratio, High Price to NAV ratio respectively. This seminar knock some sense into me as the Art of FA is extremely important

Quote of the day

Inactivity is the best behaviour

2008 second trade

====Recent Activites=====
Fed Reserve held an emergancy meeting on tuesday and announce a 0.75% cut on the interests rate. Together with the simulus package, Asian Market rallied to ridiculous height where we see HSI rebounded strongly from a low of 21709.63 on tueday to a high of 24,966.17 on thursday ( wide range of 3256.54) and STI recovered to a high of 3050 from 2746( 300 points range). During this 3 days, I saw heavy volatilies on the indexes which are swinging like a roller coasters. Many professional full time traders benefits from such volatilities.

====Jeopardizing Myself====
Again not learning my mistakes - seeing fellows traders share their wonderful profitting encounters has planted in seeds of desires to be like them earning back monday losses. I traded blindly this time and got myself into troubles again... YZJ - realised another 180 of losses as i buy high and sell low once more.... as i read through a possible bad news from our US counterparts data.

YZJ - I am condamning this stock now.... everytime i trade this counter I made losses ( 3 trades up to date mounting -1630.56 on this counter alone)

So far all 95% my losses are attributed by contra trades.... (contitutes by trading on emotions, envy, greed, temptation and stock chasing). My desire to get profits has jeopardize me and my plans. I never learn my mistakes even though I know them. I have no one to blame but myself and is getting rather sick to blame myself.

I REALLY REALLY have to stop looking the the live prices and perhaps block myself from communicating with others....

Procceeding ahead -
1) Restructure my personal finance... my last two trades has inflicted $740 damages to my saving cum expenses( had intend to put them in MMF to grow...) Life's going to be really tough ahead for me as I have to live more fragully keeping track on my expenses.

2) Need to heed fellow blogger LP's advise to keep 6 mths of expenses aside... Also need to heel mentor advices on reading up more and not get myself 100% vested. (Both had thought me alot but i failed to applied...)

3) Been too slothful on learning and my mind is always pre-occupied with other stuffs... Need to get those sorted out as well.

4) Stay out of the market for the time being....

2008 First trade

====Expect the Unexpected====
Last week, B & B(ben & bush) announce plans to give stimulus package to help the US economy. Pscyhologically, market's outlook will be optimisstic since the government finally get involved to resolve the problem. In additional, the earning season is here once more with major blue chips giving their reports within the next 2 weeks. All this will boost the market.

Such combination has entices me to do open another position in hope for some quick gains on friday. (Greed) I have done my homework and queue to purchase YZJ at 1.44 to sell at 1.50(2 bids higher then the resistance of 1.48) later.. And I was right the prices are within the intra day trade.(1.43 -1.53).

However, I did not manage to get my lots at 1.44... I tried to control my emotion to give it a miss but alas emtions overruled me once more and I chased at 1.50 and plan to sell at 1.55. towards the end of day, it closed at 1.48(resistance zone) not a good sign but i held on to my belief of the key reversal in price.

This morning, I felt something is wrong when I saw heavy selling( had the chance to offload at 1.45), however, I still stubbonly cling on to it and hope it will reverse soon. After lunch, my face turn green when major support of 1.43 was broken, within an hour it raced down to 1.38 ( when trade turned wrong I should have do a market order at 1.42 but i didn't...)

Eventually, I manage to sell at 1.40 near aug low..... felt like a someone gave me a heavy punch on my face....

****Every Prediction is not 100%, you'll never know what Mr Market it up to... *****

Punting Goes Haywire

===Ferrochina===
I have close my position for ferrochina locking a 5 bids profit. This is inevitably bad as it will give more temptations on the quick gains. And that was what has happened, now I have another open position deep in the red didn't manage to cut losses due to HOPE. Could have lock in some profits but I woke up late as i was on leave today.
Really have to stick to the screen and be very nimble...
Seems like JP Morgan dumping shares....

Will need to cut losses tomorrow or on monday.
Indicators on the charts is sucky and yet I entered into positions.

I am punished for not being discipline and not following my system again.

====Punting====

===News Revolving A Protrader====
Ok, this ultimate trader is now being charge for managing a fund without a proper license. In my opinion, I feel that he is a solid trader but his methods are to the extreme end which is not really suitable to me.

I had attended the session on his DIFF system thought by his student with Mentor. Personally i find the price is not worth the $$ as most of the time, they talk about market psychology where we can learnt through books.

===Punting===
During the weekend, I have analysed some charts and a few of them (FC, N**) are showing signs of reversal and thus I have set my mind to punt on one of them. This mentality emerged into my brain due to the my mentor successful punting in Noble last week. You may say that I am driven by greed once more but I am in a desperate situation...

Being confident with my analysis, I set to queue a few bids above the support and manages to get it in a short time. To me that is not surprising as I believe that contra players are out to close their position on the strong gap up and I am still optimisstic even when the price falls 3 bids below my purchase price...

However, things starts to turn sour in the late afternoon where the general market STI decline from the strong sentiment in the morning closing its gap up and my screen is a sea of red. This has inevitably worried me... I really wondered what went wrong.... I'm regretful of my actions once more...

How I can only pray the DJI give a fanastic results tml morning....